NDIS Reforms Could Affect Autism Support for Thousands of Australians

NDIS reforms and autism support in Australia

The federal government is pressing ahead with changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) that could see large numbers of Australians with autism lose access to funded supports.

The key numbers

Newly revealed documents suggest close to 145,000 people could lose NDIS support specifically tied to autism. (It's not yet clear whether this overlaps fully with the broader figures below, or is a separate estimate.)
Separately, in an April 2026 announcement, Minister Mark Butler confirmed the government wants to reduce total NDIS participants from 760,000 to 600,000 by 2030 — well below the previously projected 900,000, meaning roughly 300,000 people fewer than expected will be on the scheme.
The government says these changes will save around $35 billion over four years, by cutting the scheme's spending growth rate from about 10% down to roughly 2%.
Autism advocacy group ANPA says it's already aware of 12,000 children removed entirely from individualised NDIS supports, with many more cases where a child stays "on" the NDIS in name but has their plan significantly cut back.

What's actually changing

Right now, having an autism diagnosis can be enough to qualify for NDIS funding. Under the reforms, eligibility is shifting to a needs-based (functional) assessment instead — testing things like a person's ability to manage daily self-care, toileting, and everyday tasks, rather than accepting a diagnosis alone as proof of need.

For children aged 8 and under with autism or developmental delay, a new program called Thriving Kids is meant to pick up some of the support that would otherwise come through the NDIS. It sorts children into "low," "moderate," or "significant/permanent" need categories — only the last group would stay on the NDIS. Thriving Kids is due to start rolling out from October 2026, with full rollout by 2028, backed by an initial $2 billion.

Why the government says this is necessary

Autism has become one of the largest disability categories in the NDIS, and diagnoses have grown well beyond what the scheme's original 2011 modelling anticipated. The government's position is that the current growth rate isn't sustainable long-term.

Why disability advocates are worried

Some children are already losing individualised supports, or having plans cut, ahead of a fully built replacement system being in place.
Moving from diagnosis-based to functional/needs-based assessment is a major structural change, and there are concerns about consistency and fairness in how these new assessments will be applied.
Advocates want to see genuine consultation with affected families as the detail of these reforms is finalised.

What this means for you or your family

If you or someone you support currently has NDIS funding tied to an autism diagnosis:

Changes are not immediate for most people — Thriving Kids starts from October 2026 with full rollout by 2028, and detailed assessment criteria for the broader reforms haven't been fully finalised or published yet.
Some families have already reported reduced plans or removal from individualised supports, so it's worth checking your own plan review dates and any correspondence from the NDIA closely.
Official NDIS and Department of Social Services updates are the most reliable source of confirmed detail — media reports (including this one) may vary in the specific figures they cite.